Wartime adaptation dominates today's outlook: Ukraine racing to protect its drone-component supply chain and tighten mobilization, Russia institutionalizing youth militarization, and Europe accelerating cloud-sovereignty rules — all against a backdrop of Brent crude holding above $105 amid Strait of Hormuz disruption ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.

Probability framed as the EVENT happening (mobilization announcement). Base rate is extremely low: Belarus has had multiple opportunities to mobilize during the Russia-Ukraine war (2022 mobilization wave, 2023 Wagner crisis, 2024 Kursk incursion) and chose not to in every case. Lukashenko's regime stability depends on avoiding the social pressure that mobilization would create — the 2020 protests showed how thin his legitimacy is. His threatening rhetoric is a feature of his diplomatic style, not a leading indicator of action. Skeptic correctly kept this at 0.15. I trim slightly to 0.12 because: (1) the 30-day window is short, (2) the Middle East chain is in aftermath stage, removing the cross-regional pressure rationale cited by the analyst, (3) my military overestimation bias suggests I trim further. This is a valuable low-probability tail-risk forecast that documents asymmetric warning expectations vs. likely reality.