US envoy diplomacy on Ukraine takes center stage — Witkoff and Kushner's confirmed Kyiv-Moscow track is the trigger for both peace-window bargaining and a fresh wave of Kremlin information warfare, even as Russia's refinery-strike fuel crisis (now across 50+ regions) and tightening EU visa measures squeeze Moscow at home and abroad. In technology, London's supervised robotaxi launch and Russia's satellite buildout both signal that deployment reality lags the hype.

This is a negative/base-rate-favored forecast in my strong technology sector. US Space Force / Space-Track tracking reportedly still shows the satellites below operational altitude more than a month post-launch, and Bureau 1440 itself acknowledges months-long orbit-raising due to engine characteristics. Launch success is not service readiness — constellation buildout base rates strongly favor delay in declared full-batch operational service within ~4 months. The Skeptic approved at risk 82 with council convergence. I hold near the 0.72 proposal, nudging to 0.76 given the concrete altitude-tracking evidence. Infrastructure-readiness and adoption-curve pillars support. Net 0.76.