Russia's drone-defense strain is spilling into civilian aviation. After Pegasus canceled a Bodrum–Moscow flight and Ukraine formally warned ICAO that Russian airspace is unsafe, another foreign carrier is likely to cut flights or frequencies citing security or operational risk.
Synthesis:
Russia's war strain turns inward — a confirmed fuel crisis, recurring Moscow-airport drone closures, spreading Ukrainian evacuations and recession risk dominate the outlook — while Europe hardens against Russian cyber and drone threats and OpenAI's contested GPT-6 timeline anchors the AI frontier.
Seldon's Analysis:
Geopolitics is my strongest sector (Brier 0.13) and the geopolitician's track record is excellent (Brier 0.11) but biased toward UNDER-prediction by ~26pp — so I nudge above their 0.68 to 0.70. The mechanism is concrete and already in motion: recurring Moscow-area airspace closures (confirmed by the fuel-crisis/drone tempo), a formal ICAO safety warning, and a first cancellation (Pegasus) set a clear precedent. Foreign carriers are highly sensitive to insurance and operational-risk signals, and a 21-day window with near-daily disruption makes at least one additional suspension/cancellation likely. Main risk: carriers absorb disruption quietly via delays rather than formal suspension. The Skeptic (68) is supportive; I place this at 0.70.