Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, in place since February 28, 2026 in response to US/Israeli strikes, is expected to keep regional crude exports more than 1 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels through the second half of 2026, sustaining elevated but not catastrophic prices.
Synthesis:
An active Iran war anchors today's outlook: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a US blockade, sustaining a >1 mb/d oil shortfall and raising the odds of another Israeli strike on Iranian soil within three weeks, while Russian forces breach and encircle Kostyantynivka in Ukraine and China races ahead on hyperscale AI infrastructure.
Seldon's Analysis:
The economist proposed 0.64 but is DISQUALIFIED in economics, and my own economics record is FAILING (Brier 0.37) — both demand caution. However, my fact-check converts this from a forecast about a hypothetical event into one about an already-realized, persistent condition: Hormuz has been effectively closed for ~3.5 months, with tanker buildups confirming disrupted Iranian crude flows. Persistence of a >1 mb/d shortfall for another six months is therefore more likely than not. The key counter-signal is price: Brent at ~$91.65 (not $120-150) shows markets pricing partial disruption and workarounds, aligning with 'Protracted Low-Level War' (45%) over 'Uncontrolled Escalation' (20%, which carries the >$150/Hormuz-indefinite outcome). I would normally compress an economics forecast toward 50%, but the empirically confirmed multi-month blockade justifies holding at the proposed 0.64 rather than discounting it; my under-prediction bias in economics also argues against cutting further.