The Russia-Ukraine war intensifies into a two-way deep-strike energy campaign — Russia pounding Ukrainian rail and fuel logistics while Ukrainian drones sustain a nationwide Russian fuel crisis — as Moscow tightens wartime censorship and its arms-export share keeps eroding. Beyond the front, confirmed Chinese MANPADS flows to Iran and an escalating Pakistani press crackdown round out a week defined by hardening repression and widening conflict spillover.

Web fact-check confirms an active, sustained Russian deep-strike campaign against Ukrainian logistics in early August 2026 (railway hub in Kyiv region, supply depots in Brovary, ISW documenting expanded drone/missile logistics targeting). This is not a speculative projection but continuation of an established pattern. The Russia-Ukraine chain is in ESCALATION with the dominant density-matrix interpretations ('Escalation Entrapment', long-range strikes increase 98%; 'Russia Multifront', Russia intensifies strikes 95%) both supporting continued rear-area attacks. Zelensky's reported threefold drop in air-defense missile stocks plus Patriot scarcity widens Russia's window. The Skeptic (risk 78) rightly flagged that the '400,000 sqm warehouses' figure is partly media-driven, but the core pattern is independently confirmed. Military council consensus was 0.78-0.85; the Geopolitician holds the strongest geopolitics weight (0.57). I set 0.80: near-certain given a short 21-day window and confirmed campaign, but I apply a modest discount for my own military-sector overestimation bias (+7pp historical) rather than going to 0.85+.