An active US-Iran shooting war dominates the outlook: with US personnel killed in Jordan and CENTCOM striking Iranian targets nightly, further US strikes, a Gulf missile-defense surge, and continued maritime incidents near Hormuz are all likely within weeks — though Trump's history of abrupt escalate-then-deal reversals caps the certainty. Secondary threads span the AI industrial buildout (Alibaba's next Qwen, Oracle's Wisconsin power bottleneck), fraying EU sanctions unity, and tightening Russian financial and diaspora-repression measures.

This is the clearest signal in today's pool. Fact-check confirms an active shooting war with a new US strike wave on July 21, and the Middle East chain shows 0.88 purity on the 'Real Escalation' interpretation — a rare high-confidence, clarified situation. Continuation of a nightly campaign over a 30-day window is a very high base-rate event; strikes would have to stop essentially immediately to falsify. Two military and geopolitician analysts converged at 0.73-0.77, and the geopolitician's track record (Brier 0.047, bias -0.16) shows systematic underprediction, arguing for a higher number. The one real brake is Trump himself: BVI 8/10 with a 1-4 week escalate→deal→'claim victory' cycle, and the Soleimani-2020 precedent of de-escalating right after Iran's retaliation. But that 2020 episode featured no US deaths — this time two Americans were killed, which raises domestic pressure and makes an abrupt pivot costlier. I hold at 0.82 rather than pushing to 0.90, widening the interval for Trump's volatility, and applying a partial discount for my own military over-prediction bias (+13pp). Pillars: force_balance, escalation_ladder, psychohistory. Critical alert: prob>0.80, critical severity, multi-analyst.