As the 2026 Iran war moves into aftermath and oil retreats to $76, attention shifts from energy shocks to structural pressures: an entrenched no-ceasefire Russia-Ukraine war, the EU's landmark DSA enforcement forcing Meta to redesign its platforms, tightening Russian digital repression, and a compounding Venezuelan earthquake displacement crisis.

The economic-volatility chain's dominant interpretation is 'Russia Economic Overheating' (45%, CBR rate hike 95%) — high rates are equity-negative, and the corollary risk of corporate distress adds downside. An 18-week losing streak signals entrenched negative sentiment and capital flight. The Skeptic passed this at 0.68 (score 68). I temper slightly: over a full 365-day horizon, a war-ending shock or oil rebound could trigger a relief rally, and ruble/index dynamics can decouple. Balancing the strong structural downtrend against long-horizon reversal risk and my tendency to underestimate economics, I land at 0.64 — high-conviction but respecting that a year is long enough for a policy surprise to intervene.