Energy and monetary-policy signals lead the outlook: Hormuz shipping stays disrupted even as Brent slips to $85, while the BOJ leans toward a September hike to 1.25%. Meanwhile the US-Saudi nuclear deal is likely to clear Congress, China's AI ecosystem keeps accelerating, and the Russia-Ukraine war stays in escalation — with a formal Russian ceasefire unlikely (20%) and a new Moldova front improbable (82% no), though Zaporizhzhia's nuclear-safety risk remains critical.

In my strongest sector with a well-calibrated technologist (weight 1.00). The reported TRL (~4-6) plus talent migration from Google plausibly yields a demo/pilot within 12 months, and China's model-governance environment makes automated evaluation an enabling layer rather than a blocker — consistent with the AI chain's 'Regulatory Arms Race' and 'Security/Liability Shift' interpretations. The Skeptic's valid concern is the loose 'demo or pilot' definition and thin evidence for this *specific* ex-Google team versus broader China AI-safety activity. AI-tooling pilots on a 9-month horizon are common, so I hold near the analyst's 0.66, trimming to 0.64 for definitional looseness and the low-purity (0.28) meta-uncertainty of the AI chain.