Oil retreats below $100 as US-Iran ceasefire mediation caps a Middle East supply scare, even as Russia's Black Sea/Danube port campaign keeps escalation risk — and Romanian spillover — high. AI decoupling hardens with Washington and Beijing set to skip any binding safety pact, while the confirmed Nvidia-SK $500B buildout signals the industrial phase of the AI race.

This negative forecast rests on a solid base rate: the BJP has repeatedly weathered exam-scandal and administrative controversies without ministerial resignations, managing them via bureaucratic reshuffling given its parliamentary dominance and closed political-opportunity structure. Diffuse, cross-issue protest (rather than concentrated single-issue pressure) further dilutes leverage on the NEET demand specifically. The Skeptic (77) affirms the argument is sound and falsifiable. I lift slightly from the analyst's 0.68 to 0.72 — my geopolitics/institutional under-prediction bias and the strength of the incumbency base rate justify a touch more confidence that no resignation occurs. Downside risk: a Supreme Court intervention forcing the minister's hand, which remains the low-probability path to falsification. Adds valuable South Asia and social-sector diversity to the digest.