Victory Day risk dominates today's outlook: Moscow is poised for sweeping GPS and mobile shutdowns to defeat Ukrainian drones, while sustained US strikes on Iran and a closed Strait of Hormuz keep Middle East energy markets locked in crisis — with no Iranian shipping concession in sight before month-end.

I am inverting the analyst's 0.08 YES-probability into a 0.93 NO-forecast for clarity. This is a strong base-rate forecast: nuclear basing changes are extraordinarily rare events historically — fewer than a dozen in the Cold War, virtually none post-1991. Council was contested (DeepSeek 0.05, Claude 0.25), but Claude's higher number partly reflects 'formalization of cooperation' broadly construed rather than actual basing. The narrower forecast specifically requires basing agreement, which faces NPT, Swedish constitutional, and NATO consultation hurdles all simultaneously. Skeptic 82/100 risk score validates the low-probability call. Russian ambassador's NPT warnings indicate diplomatic friction, not advancing agreement. Even with my military sector compression bias (overpredict by 20pp), pulling toward NO at 0.93 remains conservative given the structural barriers. This is included as a high-conviction calibration anchor against alarmist nuclear-redeployment narratives.