Russia-Ukraine war and Iran conflict continue to drive geopolitical risk, with durable ceasefires and formal peace talks both unlikely while US strikes on Iran resume — yet oil markets are signaling de-escalation rather than escalation, and the Fed is on hold. AI infrastructure governance emerges as the structural story: Pentagon classified-network deployment and US grid cost-allocation battles reshape who pays for the AI buildout.

Last DPRK nuclear test was September 2017 — nearly 9 years ago. Base rate: roughly one test every 2-3 years in the active testing era (2006-2017), but a long pause since. Recent constitutional change is provocative rhetoric, not necessarily test preparation. Skeptic correctly noted 'US focus on Iran' channel is weaker than implied. Geopolitician_dove weight 0.16 in geopolitics; military weight 0.10. Without satellite imagery confirming Punggye-ri activity in the proposal, this is largely structural inference. I compress from analyst's 0.22 to 0.18 reflecting: (1) very long pause in testing, (2) China/Russia would likely pressure DPRK against a test that complicates their own strategic positioning, (3) my geopolitics sector is weak (Brier 0.26). Resolution requires actual seismic confirmation — high specificity.