Escalation-by-attrition dominates today's outlook: an active North Korean missile cycle and Iran's counter-espionage crackdown run alongside Armenia's near-complete break from Russia's CSTO, while China's property slump stays entrenched — but a direct Russia-NATO clash remains a low-probability tail despite Polymarket noise.

Economics is a weak sector for me (Brier 0.301, over by ~16pp), so I start by compressing toward 50 and leaning on the Skeptic (who passed at 0.68, risk 84) and the high-weight economist (sector weight 1.00). But the compression is offset by an unusually low resolution bar: fact-check confirms Dec 2025 new-home prices were −2.7% YoY across 70 cities with continued declines into 2026. For the index to turn YoY positive in 3+ of 12 months would require a sharp demand rebound with no catalyst on the horizon; PBOC easing transmits to liquidity long before end-demand. Base-rate logic (once nationwide prices turn persistently negative they stay weak for many months) plus current momentum argue the true probability is ~0.82; I hold it at 0.76 to honor my economics over-prediction bias. What would make me wrong: a large surprise Beijing demand-side stimulus package, a statistical methodology change, or a base-effect flip late in the window.