Infrastructure under fire dominates today's outlook: Zaporizhzhia's 14th power loss raises nuclear-safety anxiety, Sandworm cyber attribution against Ukrainian grid/rail is highly likely within 90 days, and a discovered Chinese seabed sensor pushes Indonesia toward a formal subsea security review. Meanwhile, despite an active $20B US-Iran cash-for-uranium proposal, a formal 60-day agreement remains improbable — and Iran is even less likely to close Hormuz while negotiating.

Fact-check confirms ABC News, Reuters, and other outlets identified the Bali/Lombok device as a Chinese undersea monitoring system in a strategically critical sea lane connecting Australia to the South China Sea. The political cost for Indonesia of NOT reviewing after such explicit public attribution is rising. Prabowo's defense orientation and Indonesia's growing balancing posture between US and China favor a formal review. The risk to 0.68 is Jakarta's historical reluctance to publicly confront Beijing on sensitive matters; this keeps me from going above 0.72. Skeptic at 68 is on the lower end but not fatal. Base rate: most major cable/sensor discoveries in the last 5 years have triggered formal reviews in the affected state (Sweden, Finland, Estonia after Baltic cable incidents 2023-2024).