Twin pressure points dominate today's outlook: an active US-Iran tit-for-tat cycle near Hormuz that markets are pricing as limited (Brent fell 4.3% even as strikes resumed), and a deepening Russian fuel and energy crisis now forcing emergency rationing across dozens of regions even as Moscow intensifies blackout strikes on Ukraine. Trump's escalate-then-deal pattern shapes both the Iran de-escalation odds and the low probability that his 100% EU digital-tax tariff is actually implemented within 60 days.

I am raising this above the analyst's 0.65 and Skeptic's 0.65 because fresh fact-check evidence shows the precondition is already largely met: 'Six Russian Regions Implement Emergency Fuel Rationing,' Crimea has declared a state of emergency, and Meduza confirms 15-liter caps. Forecast memory is decisive — two highly similar resolved forecasts ('Russia declares fuel rationing in at least five regions,' 'Russia cuts diesel exports 30%') resolved CORRECT at 0.95 and 0.88 with excellent Brier scores, and the lesson was that a sound causal chain plus accumulating evidence warrants high confidence even against conservative base rates. With Brent crashing 4.3% to $72 compounding refinery revenue stress, the supply squeeze is structural, not transient. The main residual uncertainty is definitional (what counts as a formal 'emergency declaration' vs. administrative rationing), which is why I stop at 0.85 rather than going higher.