The US-Israel war on Iran enters its second month with oil above $140 and Israeli strikes confirmed on Iranian petrochemical complexes, while Ukraine's parallel energy war intensifies with Novorossiysk oil terminals burning — a two-front energy shock that is driving Asian coal substitution, accelerating Gulf defense spending, and raising the specter of Iranian cyber retaliation against Western critical infrastructure.

The military analyst (Brier 0.0146, exceptional track record, slight downward bias of -0.12) set P=0.74. I adjust upward by 0.04 to account for the documented downward bias. The Skeptic rated this 84/100 — highest risk score in the pool — calling the logic 'coherent and base-rate aligned.' Russia's established response to successful deep strikes is fortification and dispersal rather than concession. Multiple event chains confirm the pressure: 'Attack on port in Novorossiysk continues' (12 clusters, escalation, stalled), 'Ukrainian drone sinks cargo ship in Azov Sea' (26 clusters, 18 days, escalation). Fact-checking confirms existing security tightening/camouflage at Novorossiysk. The Skeptic's main concern — that Russia may use covert dispersal rather than visible deployments — is valid but doesn't negate the forecast; even covert measures (exclusion zones, fleet dispersal orders) would satisfy resolution criteria. Resource tradeoffs with other fronts could slow visible reinforcement, but Novorossiysk's role as a critical oil export terminal makes it a priority. Force Balance and Military Doctrine pillars strongly support this outcome.