Escalation hardens across the Russia-Ukraine theater: Ukraine is poised for a ballistic strike on Russian soil and broader counter-drone and energy-infrastructure campaigns, while NATO reinforces the Baltics after its first drone shootdown over Latvia. Beyond the war, OpenAI's trillion-dollar IPO and a cross-border Ebola emergency in DRC's Ituri round out a high-stakes outlook.

Technology is my best-calibrated sector (Brier 0.028) and the technologist, while low-weighted in the aggregate scheme, has an outstanding raw track record (Brier 0.03). The economics of attritable interceptors against 300+ nightly Shaheds create overwhelming operational pressure to scale a working system — this is a chaos-theory/network-effect dynamic where a proven node propagates rapidly across the front. The escalating drone tempo (confirmed) is the demand driver. Skeptic passed at 0.74. The main uncertainty is disclosure timing and whether expansion is publicly confirmed within 90 days versus quietly fielded; I trim marginally to 0.72.