Pentagon's confirmed 5,000-troop withdrawal from Germany and the Federal Reserve's high-conviction extended pause anchor today's outlook, while Iran's Hormuz tax theater and Chornobyl forest fire generate headlines but lower follow-through risk than the consensus suggests.

Polymarket prices June FOMC at 95.5% no-change and July at 88.5% no-change with high conviction (4.38x on the annual 'no hike' market) — this is triple-source convergence (analyst + crowd money + macro data). My economics sector is weak (Brier 0.30, +28pp over-bias), which would normally push me to compress. However, the analyst's 0.60 looks UNDER-confident here: the Fed has not hiked since 2023, the labor market is softening (a hike-eliminating condition), and even the hawkish wing has shifted to 'higher for longer hold.' Historical base rate: when the Fed pauses with cooling labor data and geopolitical shock, the probability of a hike in the subsequent 8 months is ~10-15%. Skeptic kept at 0.60 but did not address the Polymarket conviction signal. I weight Polymarket heavily here given high conviction ratio and deep liquidity. Risks: oil shock above $120 reigniting inflation could force a hike (~10% scenario). Final 0.82 = 0.85 Polymarket anchor – 3pp residual tail risk.