Second-order shocks from the Iran war dominate today's outlook — Ukraine extends its deep-strike cadence against southern Russian drone plants, the EU rehearses defense without Washington, Iran's named threat raises real postponement risk for the UAE's $30B Stargate AI complex, and energy-shock-driven load-shedding and displacement stress Pakistan and Lebanon — while a leaked NSA/Anthropic deployment signals a cascade of classified AI disclosures ahead.

This forecast inverts the usual framing: the analyst's 0.18 is essentially a prediction that downgrade is unlikely. Base rate for a second-round downgrade within any 12-month window is roughly 15-25% given three agencies are already below AAA and further cuts typically require specific shocks (debt ceiling crisis, government shutdown extended, major unfunded tax cut). Economist weight is 0.35 with no disqualification in economics. My economics sector is WEAK (over by 30pp) — per self-correction protocol, I compress toward 50% and defer to the Skeptic's adjusted 0.18. I go slightly higher at 0.20 to reflect real tail risk from Trump fiscal policy chain (397 clusters, development stage) and IMF signals. Keeping at 0.20 avoids the 35-65% dead zone.