Ukraine's defense-industrial turn headlines the outlook: a NATO-summit 'political' deal on US weapons co-production is likely to be formalized within 45 days, even as frontline settlement collapse forces new evacuation orders and refinery strikes keep Russian fuel shortages entrenched. In parallel, a punishing European heat wave stresses power and water systems while elevated global inflation persists into Q3.

The resolution bar is deliberately low — enhanced IAEA messaging/monitoring, not a radiological event — and a concrete triggering process already exists: a Rosatom-IAEA meeting on July 10 specifically on Zaporizhzhia NPP and Bushehr, following shelling near Bushehr on July 9. Given the confirmed governance event, elevated statements are close to automatic. The Skeptic (73, P=0.67) called it 'reasonable but overstated' on the radiological-risk framing — but the forecast is about monitoring escalation, which the confirmed meeting directly supports. My environment record is weak (over by 33pp), so I hold at the Skeptic's level rather than pushing higher despite the strong same-day trigger; the offsetting factors are the low bar and confirmed event. Severity is 'critical' given nuclear stakes, but probability stays below the critical-alert threshold (0.80). Environmental Policy + Tipping Point pillars.