The Iran war dominates today's outlook as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and US force buildup continues, while the NPT Review Conference opens into a geopolitical environment almost guaranteed to prevent consensus. At home, the April 25 White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting will likely trigger bipartisan congressional security hearings within 60 days.

Fact-check confirms RevCon opens April 27 and runs through May 22. Dual-persona forecast (Hawk 0.72, Dove 0.67) with low spread (0.05) — both opposite-bias personas converge, a strong consensus signal. Base rate: 3 of last 5 RevCons failed (~60%). Current context is materially worse than 2022 (which already failed): active US-Iran kinetic conflict over nuclear program, Russia operating under heavy sanctions and threatening nuclear rhetoric, China expanding arsenal. Iran is unlikely to constructively engage while under blockade. Skeptic adjusted to 0.64 noting only moderate evidence quality and historical-base reasoning. I push slightly higher than Skeptic because the current geopolitical setup is uniquely bad — Iran war alone could prevent consensus. The quantum persona shadow flagged 0.95 (amplification 1.367), suggesting constructive interference; I treat this as observational confirmation. My geopolitics Brier is acceptable (0.21), so no major compression needed. Pillars: power dynamics, structural forces, historical parallels.