Strait of Hormuz tensions dominate today's outlook as Iran advances sovereignty legislation and intelligence confirms Chinese weapons transfer preparations to Tehran, while the US prepares sanctions responses and oil markets face a contested path to $102. Meanwhile, yesterday's Ukrainian drone strike on Russia's Plesetsk cosmodrome during a satellite launch signals a dramatic expansion of the war's reach into space infrastructure.

Merging two proposals (idx=0 at 90 days and idx=8 at 180 days) into a 120-day horizon, which better reflects Iran's legislative timeline. My geopolitics track record is strong (Brier=0.125), giving me higher confidence in this sector. The dual-persona proposal (Hawk/Dove) showed remarkably low spread (0.05), indicating both hawkish and dovish analysts agree this legislation will advance. Hawk at P=0.70, Dove at P=0.75. This cross-bias convergence is a strong signal. The quantum persona shadow shows constructive interference (amplification ratio 1.31), further supporting the directional consensus. Fact-check confirmed: AP, The Economist, and other outlets corroborate that Iran's Majlis is actively drafting this bill, including toll provisions. Multiple search results confirm this is not rumor-stage — it's confirmed legislative activity. Khamenei profile analysis (BVI=3, low volatility): Iran's Supreme Leader is strategic and deliberate. When the regime initiates a legislative process of this nature, it typically has buy-in from the top. Khamenei's pattern is measured, long-term strategic positioning. A sovereignty bill fits his doctrine of resistance economy and strategic deterrence without direct military confrontation. However, the Skeptic correctly identified a procedural gap: the journey from drafting to passage requires Majlis vote, Guardian Council review, and potentially Expediency Council intervention. 90 days may be tight; 120 days provides more realistic runway. The Guardian Council could slow or amend the bill, particularly if pragmatist factions argue it will provoke international escalation at a sensitive time. I set P=0.67 (above the Skeptic's 0.66) based on: the dual-persona convergence, Khamenei's deliberate pattern (if it's being drafted publicly, it has regime backing), and the extended 120-day window. The 33% failure probability accounts for Guardian Council delays, factional opposition, or strategic pause if diplomatic opportunities emerge.