Both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war are hitting each other's energy and export infrastructure: Russian strikes on Odesa's ports are near-certain to continue, and at least one Ukrainian-hit refinery is likely to still be offline next week. A comprehensive US-Iran peace deal stays unlikely despite talk of a new ceasefire, while Hurricane Polo is expected to cause flooding in Baja California Sur and EU capitals are likely to adopt winter energy-saving measures.

The bar is low and the Kremlin's incentives are strong. Since 2022 the Duma has passed benefit laws for war participants several times a year: tax breaks, land plots, university quotas, the 'Time of Heroes' programme for state jobs. A new Duma with an organised veteran group and Putin's stated 'new elite' agenda makes another such law over 300 days close to routine. The main risks are budget pressure, since the Russian deficit is widening, and how strictly 'materially expanding' is read. Even under fiscal strain, the Kremlin has been expanding non-cash privileges such as quotas and preferences. I set 0.85, above the analyst's 0.68, because of the legislative base rate and my roughly 13pp underestimate in social forecasts.