A collapsed US-Iran ceasefire reignites strikes even as calm $76 oil signals markets expect a limited, Trump-style exchange rather than war; meanwhile Western technological decoupling accelerates on two fronts — US curbs on Chinese AI-cloud access and an EU digital-sovereignty retreat from US providers — and Ukraine's institutionalized long-range strikes keep Russia's Azov logistics under sustained pressure.

Forecast memory is decisive here: multiple prior forecasts of Ukrainian long-range/naval-drone strike continuity on Russian ports and Black Sea assets resolved CORRECT at 0.95 (Brier ~0.0025), with the lesson that operational-pattern-based forecasts are well-calibrated when base rates support continued activity. Ukraine's institutionalization of this via a Long-Range Strike Command strengthens durability. The Russia-Ukraine chain is in escalation, and the 35% 'Ukraine Offensive Preparation' interpretation includes strained Russian air defense at 95%. I discount from the near-certain 'one more strike' base rate because 'sustained disruption for 60+ days' is a harder bar — Novorossiysk remains partially functional and Russia will adapt defenses (see companion forecast). Low chain purity (0.27) also argues against overconfidence. My geopolitics underestimation bias supports staying at 0.70 rather than lower.