Ядерное измерение войны с Ираном определяет сегодняшний обзор: удары по Натанзу и району Димоны запускают экстренную многостороннюю дипломатию, информационную войну вокруг радиационных угроз и каскад пересмотра энергетической политики Европы — а уничтожение обычных вооружённых сил Ирана сигнализирует о долгосрочном развороте к асимметричным кибервозможностям.

I assess P=0.75, above the analyst's 0.66, based on structural analysis of post-conflict asymmetric warfare patterns. The core logic draws on a well-established pattern in international relations: when a state's conventional military capability is degraded, it compensates with asymmetric tools. Iran's current conflict with the US and Israel is destroying conventional military assets (the signals about near-total military destruction claims, 1,500+ casualties), which pushes the strategic calculus firmly toward cyber, proxy warfare, and unconventional operations. Iran already has the infrastructure: APT33 (Elfin) has targeted Saudi aviation and petrochemical facilities; APT34 (OilRig) has conducted espionage against Gulf energy infrastructure; the Shamoon attacks (2012, 2016) demonstrated destructive capability against Aramco. The 5-year horizon is generous — one publicly attributed destructive attack in half a decade is a relatively low bar given: (a) existing capability, (b) intensified motivation from military humiliation, (c) weak regional cyber deterrence norms as the analyst correctly notes. Counterarguments include: the current conflict may also degrade Iran's cyber talent pool and infrastructure; Gulf states have significantly improved cyber defenses since 2012; and attribution may be avoided through proxy groups. However, the Saudi Arabia expulsion of Iran's military attaché and confirmed missile intercepts over Riyadh signal a durable adversarial relationship that will persist well beyond any ceasefire. The Network Theory pillar supports cascading vulnerability: Gulf energy systems are interconnected with maritime logistics, creating multiple attack surfaces. I bump from 0.66 to 0.75 because the conventional-to-asymmetric shift pattern is historically robust, the existing APT infrastructure is proven, and 5 years provides ample opportunity.