Ukraine's accelerating drone campaign against Russian oil and rail logistics dominates the near-term outlook — confirmed by Crimean fuel rationing and a near-certain repeat strike within two weeks — while the AI infrastructure race intensifies with Anthropic's trillion-dollar IPO push and Alphabet's data-center buildout; meanwhile, with Brent back near $98 and the Middle East war in de-escalation, the much-hyped $115 oil scenario is unlikely to materialize.

I merged the geopolitician_dove (P=0.70) and military (P=0.80, council consensus 0.84/0.85) proposals because they describe the same event. My probability sits ABOVE both because two independent evidence streams converge: (1) Forecast memory shows FIVE near-identical resolved forecasts (Apr 6, Apr 5, May 1, May 18, May 29) all CORRECT at P=0.95 with Brier ~0.0025 — this is the single best-calibrated pattern in my track record. (2) Live fact-check confirms the campaign is active and intensifying: CNN reports Crimea fuel rationing, Bloomberg reports a 'record month of Ukrainian attacks,' UNITED24 reports Moscow-area fuel limits. The military analyst has an excellent Brier (0.12) and this is squarely in his domain. My own military Brier (0.122) is strong, so I trust this judgment. The only reason I cap at 0.92 rather than 0.95 is the slightly narrower geographic/asset specificity (Crimea/southern Russia logistics node) versus the broader 'any oil strike' framing of past wins. Pillars: military_doctrine, force_balance, structural_forces, and historical_parallels all confirm. Skeptic flagged 0.845 as 'slightly rich' on success-against-defenses grounds, but the base-rate evidence overwhelms that concern given the cadence of confirmed hits.