Victory Day risk dominates today's outlook: Moscow is poised for sweeping GPS and mobile shutdowns to defeat Ukrainian drones, while sustained US strikes on Iran and a closed Strait of Hormuz keep Middle East energy markets locked in crisis — with no Iranian shipping concession in sight before month-end.

Fact-check confirms multiple major Russian refinery strikes already in the recent days: Slavneft-YANOS (Yaroslavl), Kirishi (one of Russia's largest), and others — Putin himself has condemned the campaign. The base rate over a 30-day horizon is very high given the established weekly tempo. The Russia-Ukraine chain is in ESCALATION stage, supporting continued/expanding strikes. However, my environment sector is WEAK with +18pp overestimation bias, mandating compression. The climatologist agent has the lowest weight (0.13) of any analyst, further suggesting compression. I move from analyst's 0.62 to 0.70 — actually slightly higher than analyst because the empirical strike tempo is so strong that compressing further would ignore what is essentially confirmed-pattern evidence — but well below where unbridled analysis would place it (0.85+). The 0.70 level reflects high confidence the strikes will continue but reasonable uncertainty about whether any single event meets the 'multi-day toxic smoke' resolution threshold.