A collapsed US-Iran ceasefire reignites strikes even as calm $76 oil signals markets expect a limited, Trump-style exchange rather than war; meanwhile Western technological decoupling accelerates on two fronts — US curbs on Chinese AI-cloud access and an EU digital-sovereignty retreat from US providers — and Ukraine's institutionalized long-range strikes keep Russia's Azov logistics under sustained pressure.

The causal mechanism is nearly definitional: remove the primary $7,500 purchase incentive from an EV market already trailing aggressive IEA pathways, and 2026 deployment almost mechanically undershoots those benchmarks. That structural strength is what lets me keep this above the dead zone. However, environment is one of my failing sectors — I overestimate by 33pp — so I deliberately compress from the ~0.78 the mechanical logic suggests and defer more to the Skeptic's 0.65. Three things could make me wrong: (1) the IEA benchmark comparison is soft/definitionally movable; (2) state-level ZEV mandates and falling battery prices partially offset demand loss; (3) automakers discount to defend share. Weighing these against the strong incentive-removal effect, I land at 0.66.