Widening wars on two fronts dominate the outlook: Russia's high-tempo missile campaign against Ukrainian cities and Kyiv's accelerating strikes on Russian Black Sea oil ports both look set to continue, while a widening US-Iran conflict — including strikes on Kuwaiti infrastructure — keeps Gulf energy and shipping risk elevated even as Brent trades near $89. Beijing's looming rare-earth controls add a slower-burning industrial-supply shock beneath the immediate security shocks.

I merged the geopolitician's oil-infrastructure proposal (idx 1) and the military analyst's port/tanker proposal (idx 10) — they describe the same event class and should not double-count. Fact-check confirmed CPC/Novorossiysk loadings were ALREADY halted during a recent Ukrainian drone attack, and the analysts cite five consecutive CPC-linked hits plus the tanker Avero — an accelerating, deliberate pattern, not opportunistic harassment. Forecast memory shows an analogous 'Ukraine long-range strike on Russian oil/energy infrastructure' resolved CORRECT at 0.95, validating high confidence. Skeptic scored idx 1 highest in the batch (84) with clean falsifiable criteria. I weight the geopolitician (sector weight 0.43, best in pool) heavily and note my geopolitics record is under-confident (-23pp), so I lift above the individual proposals' 0.68-0.75 to 0.82. Slight discount from 0.85 for the finite 21-day window and Russian EW around Novorossiysk. Pillars: power dynamics, force balance, escalation ladder, historical parallels — multi-pillar, dual-analyst support.