Reciprocal deep strikes dominate the Russia-Ukraine war as Kyiv's drones crush Russian refining to a 21-year low while Moscow readies another mass aerial barrage; meanwhile the Iran war's aftermath drives twin proliferation pressures — an Iranian nuclear hedge and a US missile-defense procurement surge — and Europe edges further toward conscription.

The Skeptic's key critique is base-rate neglect: Iran has repeatedly advanced toward the threshold while stopping short of overt weaponization to avoid inviting further strikes — a genuine constraint. The historical-analogy search returned no strong precedents (top hits were low-similarity coup/WMD cases), so the North Korea-post-Iraq and Libya cautionary logic rests on the proposal's own framing. However, the resolution criteria are DISJUNCTIVE, and the lowest bar — formally halting/expelling IAEA inspection cooperation — is quite achievable within 12 months given the post-war rupture (Iran already suspended much cooperation after prior strikes). That, plus the strong post-war deterrent incentive, pulls this above a coin flip. The geopolitician is my most reliable analyst (weight 0.62, Brier 0.20) and my own geopolitics record shows an UNDER-prediction bias (-12pp), so I resist compressing this down toward the Skeptic's base-rate concern. Netanyahu's profile (Iran containment as top priority, covert-first doctrine) means any overt Iranian step invites renewed Israeli/US action, which is exactly why Iran may keep enrichment ambiguous rather than test — capping this below 0.70. I land at 0.66.