War economies harden on both fronts: the Russia-Ukraine attrition entrenches as Europe revives the frozen-assets debate and Moscow deepens conscription registration and corporate coercion, while Trump's new grid-security emergency order accelerates US-China tech decoupling and primes a PRC energy-sector cyber disclosure. A Swiss neutrality referendum offers Moscow a longshot sanctions loophole — but polling points firmly to defeat.

I invert the framing to the more forecastable, clearly-resolving event. Fact-check reveals a June Tamedia poll at just 34% in favour vs 54% against, active government opposition, and — critically — Swiss constitutional initiatives require a DOUBLE majority (popular vote plus a majority of cantons), a high bar that initiatives rarely clear even with plurality support. The analyst's 0.25 for passage is too generous; passage probability is ~0.12-0.15, so the failure/no-change outcome is ~0.85+. I state the forecast as passage at 0.12, comfortably below the dead zone and grounded in hard polling data. This corrects the proposal's premise that used a 2025 date — the vote is 30 days out (Sept 27, 2026).