Trump's Beijing summit with Xi — Jensen Huang in tow — anchors today's outlook, signaling pragmatic US-China dealmaking that points toward a new Nvidia China-compliant chip and a delay in major Taiwan arms announcements, even as the Russia-Ukraine drone war, $100+ Brent, and acute coalition crises in Israel and the Philippines keep the global stress map fully lit.

Base rate is overwhelmingly in favor of this resolving 'yes': Russia has been grinding through Donbas since 2014 and has not captured Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk or Sloviansk despite 4+ years of full-scale war and massive casualties. The Russia-Ukraine chain (escalation stage) shows 40% probability on 'Real War Escalation' but that scenario is consistent with continued attrition, not breakthrough. Strike volume (800-drone barrages) is not the bottleneck — combat engineering, urban breaching mass, and rested reserves are, and there are no signals of these accumulating. APPLYING SELF-CORRECTION: My military Brier is 0.309 with 25pp over-bias, so I compress from the analyst's 0.79 to 0.72. What would make me wrong? (1) Russian general mobilization wave + 6-month operational pause then push, (2) Ukrainian manpower collapse from US aid cutoff, (3) negotiated territorial cession framed as 'capture.' None imminent at this horizon.