A collapsed Iran-Israel ceasefire dominates today's outlook — renewed missile exchanges are driving Brent toward $98, threatening a 3.5%+ US CPI print and priming Iranian cyber retaliation against Israel — while a confirmed Chornobyl spent-fuel strike, an 8.2 Mindanao megaquake, and structural realignments (France's Eastern Mediterranean basing in Cyprus, post-Orbán Hungary, and Trump's 60-country forced-labor tariffs) round out a high-volatility global picture.

The climatologist's chain (drought stress + visible AI water use + local siting fights → at least one state mandate) is plausible and the Skeptic rated it 84, noting lawmakers are already examining the issue. Resource-scarcity and environmental-policy pillars support it. The forecast is well-scoped: a single state over a full year is a low bar given that California already has data-center energy-efficiency standards as a template and water is the logical next frontier. This connects the Climate/Energy-Transition and AI-industry chains. The main risk is that states pursue voluntary frameworks or permitting-level controls rather than statutory 'mandates,' which could fail the resolution criterion. Environment is a weak sector for me (Brier 0.255), so I hold at the Skeptic's 0.68 rather than inflating. A yearly-horizon structural forecast adds useful horizon diversity to the digest.