Energy and monetary-policy signals lead the outlook: Hormuz shipping stays disrupted even as Brent slips to $85, while the BOJ leans toward a September hike to 1.25%. Meanwhile the US-Saudi nuclear deal is likely to clear Congress, China's AI ecosystem keeps accelerating, and the Russia-Ukraine war stays in escalation — with a formal Russian ceasefire unlikely (20%) and a new Moldova front improbable (82% no), though Zaporizhzhia's nuclear-safety risk remains critical.

I reframed this away from the proposal's 'Brent above $90' criterion, which my price check falsified (Brent = $85.11, below $90 and falling). The durable signal is disruption persistence, where Polymarket's 82% with moderate 2.1x conviction, the Middle East chain's high-purity (0.88) 'Real Escalation' interpretation, and only a 'temporary' Omani corridor all converge. However, the falling Brent price is meaningful counter-evidence: markets are not pricing worsening scarcity, suggesting rerouting is absorbing the shock and 'normalization' may partially resolve. Given economics is a weak sector for me (overprediction +19pp), I compress from Polymarket's 82% to 0.68, splitting the difference between the market's conviction and the softening-price signal.