The drone-and-missile war dominates today's outlook: Russia is near-certain to strike Kyiv again within a month while hardening its own logistics hubs against Ukrainian drones, even as depleted Western stockpiles push Washington toward accelerated munitions replenishment. Elsewhere, structural fragility surfaces — Cuba's collapsing grid, a record-low Rhine choking German freight, entrenched Israeli settlement expansion, and tightening EU sanctions and AI-labeling rules.

The geopolitician (top-weighted, 0.59) proposed 0.64 and the Skeptic passed at 0.72. I settle at 0.70. The base rate is strong: successive recent EU packages (17th, 18th) have each added shadow-fleet vessel designations, making this a recurring, near-mechanical policy action rather than a novel decision. This fits the 'Escalating Sanctions Consensus' strand of the governance chain (Russia isolated further 80%). I nudge above the analyst's 0.64 because geopolitics is a sector where I systematically under-predict (under by 7pp) and the pattern of incremental vessel listings is highly reliable within a 90-day window. Downside risk: EU package timing can slip past 90 days if a member state (e.g., Hungary) stalls consensus, which is why I stay below 0.75.