Russia's deepening manpower crisis frames today's outlook — Moscow is more likely to tighten recruitment through incremental coercive measures than risk a dramatic new mobilization or a Belarusian front — while the US-China tech contest sharpens around supercomputing supremacy and an AI-driven chip rally. Markets send mixed signals: gold hovers a fraction below $4,000 and poised to recover, even as recession fears soften oil.

I invert the proposal to a sub-35% probability for the extreme-event occurring. The climatologist set 0.28 (Skeptic 0.28) for ONI>+2.0 emergence — and that low figure is appropriate: 'Godzilla' El Niños (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16) are historically rare, requiring exceptional ocean-heat buildup. The climatologist carries a very low reliability weight (0.05) in environment, so I lean on the base rate rather than model enthusiasm. The Climate/Energy chain is muddied (purity 0.27), with no dominant interpretation, which argues for not over-committing to a dramatic tail outcome. My environment record runs slightly over (+6pp), so I trim marginally to 0.25 for the event occurring (i.e., ~0.75 that it does NOT reach that intensity). Severity stays high because the impact, if it materialized, would be hundreds of billions in damages. Resolution: ONI in Niño 3.4 reaches +2.0°C by October 2026.