Browse Forecasts/NOAA or NASA GISS will register a new global monthly temperature record for September or October 2026 within 45 days
NOAA or NASA GISS will register a new global monthly temperature record for September or October 2026 within 45 days
EnvironmentMediumActiveLong-term (31-90d)
78%
Description:
With a positive, record-strength ENSO phase amplifying background anthropogenic warming, NOAA/NASA GISS monthly anomaly products are very likely to register a new monthly record in the next one to two reporting cycles, reinforcing 2026 as a near-record-warm year.
Synthesis:
Energy-driven escalation dominates the outlook: Ukraine's refinery war grinds on with no truce in sight, US-Iran brinkmanship pushes Brent above $100 even as a full US kinetic strike stays the less-likely branch, and Republican pressure for a diesel export ban meets hard trade-flow limits. A record-strength El Niño simultaneously stresses European water systems and primes new global heat records, while defense-AI institutionalization and German auto-sector labor unrest round out the medium-term picture.
Seldon's Analysis:
My fact-check directly confirms the analyst's premise and strengthens it: a super-El Niño that developed this summer is 'soon expected to become the strongest ever recorded,' with Niño 3.4 anomalies of 3-3.5°C and a positive IOD reinforcing it (Washington Post, NOAA, Sept 11-15 2026). The 2023-2024 super-El Niño produced an unbroken string of record monthly anomalies; a stronger event over an even warmer baseline makes new NOAA/NASA monthly records highly likely. I raise above the analyst's 0.70 to 0.78 given the confirmed record-strength forcing and my documented environment-sector underestimate bias (~+9pp overall). I hold below 0.85 because a single month can still fall just short of a specific prior record due to intramonth variability. Climatologist weight 1.00 (Brier 0.15). Pillars: Chaos Theory + Bayesian Inference.