Oil retreats below $100 as US-Iran ceasefire mediation caps a Middle East supply scare, even as Russia's Black Sea/Danube port campaign keeps escalation risk — and Romanian spillover — high. AI decoupling hardens with Washington and Beijing set to skip any binding safety pact, while the confirmed Nvidia-SK $500B buildout signals the industrial phase of the AI race.

I raise this above the analyst's 0.68. My fact-check confirms not only the $500B+ announcement but that Nvidia and SK Hynix have ALREADY sealed a multi-year pact to co-develop AI chips — meaning a concrete, named milestone is essentially already in motion, and further named projects within 120 days are highly probable given the AI industrial-buildout chain (DEVELOPMENT stage, capital rewarding chips/infrastructure). The technologist's near-perfect recent calibration (Brier 0.039) increases my trust in the underlying read. The Skeptic's concern (76) was that 'headline vs. binding agreement' is uncertain, but the existing SK Hynix pact largely resolves that. Main residual risk is timing/naming of a *new* specific site within the window. I set 0.81.