The Russia-Ukraine war intensifies into a two-way deep-strike energy campaign — Russia pounding Ukrainian rail and fuel logistics while Ukrainian drones sustain a nationwide Russian fuel crisis — as Moscow tightens wartime censorship and its arms-export share keeps eroding. Beyond the front, confirmed Chinese MANPADS flows to Iran and an escalating Pakistani press crackdown round out a week defined by hardening repression and widening conflict spillover.

The structural case is strong and multi-pillar (supply/demand + trade-flow + psychohistorical trend): Russian export share has collapsed toward ~7%, production is prioritized for domestic war needs, and buyer diversification is accelerating — all confirmed directional pressures. The Skeptic (risk 83, adj 0.70) endorsed the direction and correctly identified that the only real uncertainty is the 20% magnitude threshold. That threshold is the binding constraint: arms deliveries are lumpy, and a single large completion (e.g., an Indian or Egyptian delivery tranche) could keep the annual drop below 20%. The Economist's baseline weight is modest (0.09) and economics is a weak sector for me (overestimate bias), so I discount from 0.70 to 0.66 to reflect the genuine risk that magnitude undershoots the threshold in a given year.